Loan

Calling For Low Mortgage Rates

There are two specific reasons why today’s mortgage rates may be the lowest we will see for years to come…

First, the Federal Reserve Board purchased nearly $2 TRILLION in Mortgage Backed Securities in 2009 and they are still the largest buyer in the secondary market for mortgages today… like the fairy godmothers in Cinderella, the Fed has created something that cannot last.

Experts estimate that this aggressive Fed intervention in the market has held mortgage rates 1-2% below where they would otherwise be. As I write this in late January 2010, 30 year fixed rate mortgages are still near historic lows, but the clock is ticking loudly.

The Fed has reiterated several times that it plans to DISCONTINUE its mortgage support program by the end of March 2010… that’s just 8 weeks from now…. 44 working days from today.

The official Fed statement of January 27 read in part:

“To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities… the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter.

What do you suppose will happen to the price of Mortgage Backed Securities when the largest buyer in that market disappears?

All other things being equal, the reduction in demand from the Fed will reduce the price of mortgage backed securities. Since interest rates are the inverse of bond prices, that means that when these mortgage bonds go down in price, the San Diego mortgage rates will rise. If the experts are right, 30 year fixed rates mortgages should move up from the 5% area now to the 6%-7% range when the Fed exits the market. Secondly, even if the Fed continues buying the MBS, rates are headed higher for another powerful reason on the supply side of the equation…

The fixed rate securities markets will have to absorb 11 TIMES as much US dollar denominated debt in2010 as compared to 2009. That is hard to comprehend. Can there be any doubt that such an increase in supply will put significant upward pressure on interest rates across the board in the very near future?

The burden of US debt financing will only grow in foreseeable future, so it is unlikely that we will see rates this low for many years to come.

In my 24 years in the mortgage industry, I have never had such certainty regarding the trend of interest rates. Homeowners who plan to be in their homes for more than a few more years should review their refinancing options NOW and lock in mortgage money while rates are still near historic lows. The “Bailout Ball” has been a grand affair, but the clock is about to strike 12.

For more information, visit www.sandiegohomeloanrates.com .

About the Author

60yr Record Low Mortgage Rates – Eric’s Daily Rate Watch for Sept 15, 2011

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